We have recommended backing Sergio Garcia in the WGC event in Mexico on the proviso of “without Johnson, Speith & McIlroy.” (Johnson, Garcia to Enjoy Mexican Fiesta)
Does this make arithmetical sense?
The market is offered by Paddy Power who offer outright odds of 13-2 Johnson, 8-1 Speith, 12-1 McIlroy and 25-1 Garcia. Collectively the three big hitters take 32% of their market, and Garcia just under 4%. That makes Garcia as a percentage of the market that doesn’t include the big 3 at just under 6% and effectively a fraction over the 16-1 being offered.
That’s not unexpected, you would hope the bookies are simply scaling the original outright market – so no added value?
Well, you do have to consider our own view of the outright merits of the 4 players involved. Our view is very strong in WGC events for in-form, highly ranked market leaders and have recommended Johnson outright. We would also be warm on Speith but cool on Mcilroy.
If we priced our outright market we may consider say 9-2 Johnson, 6-1 Speith, 16-1 McIlroy and 22-1 Garcia. At those prices the equivalent method places Garcia in the without market at 13-1. So his value in this market is driven both by our confidence in him but also our confidence in the big hitters – its a cheap and convenient way of laying the rest of the field.