Analytics is the Dictionary Corner of the site, where the main articles offer the brevity and wit (well sort of…), this goes all lexicographical and delves into the science, as such, behind the intuition.
Looking at Mane to score in both halves (Sadio at the Double?) – how good is Paddy Power’s enhancement?
Statistically, and bear with me here, using PP’s odds for Mane to score at anytime (8/5) we can compute the probability of him not scoring. This is one minus the probability of scoring, although we need to adjust the odds offered to reflect the bookie’s margin, for this bet we estimate around 15% – so, one minus the probability of scoring adjusted down by 15%, which comes out at around a 66% that he doesn’t score.
If we take each minute of the match as a statistically independent event, which is reasonable, then that’s around a 99.5% probability of not scoring each minute multiplied through the 90 minutes to give 66% for the match as a whole. That allows us to compute the probability of not scoring in a half by just multiplying through 45 minutes (ignoring stoppage time), and that comes to 81.6%. Hence, the probability of Sadio scoring in a half is 1 minus the probability of not scoring – 18.4%. We can multiply through the probability of scoring in both halves (18.4% x 18.4%) – hey presto 28/1. A clear indicator of a marginal value bet even if we accept that we concur with PP’s exact view of Mane scoring.
Let’s suppose we think 8/5 is value because the true odds are 6/4. Then we are saying that betting him outright gives us an edge of being rewarded by winning 160 for a 100 bet rather than a true return of 150, so an enhancement of 10/150 = 6.6%. But if we put that through our score-in-each-half logic, where we were already getting 33s versus 28s, an uplift of (5/28) = 18%, now we get 33s versus 25/1 so value of 8/25 = 32%. This is an imbalanced leverage factor – the more right we are, or rather the more confident we are in Mane scoring, the quicker the margin in our favour accelerates on the score-in-two-halves bet rather than the simply to score odds.
That’s what finding value is about….now watch, he’ll score 4 in the first half and get the Klopp hook at half time…..