The opening race at Kempton tonight (1745 GMT) offers a chance to test the redemption theory.
The theory goes that when a jockey loses a race he knows he should have won he will do everything to keep that ride and gain redemption by putting things right next time.
Jockey David Probert hadn’t sat on Gavarnie Encore for nearly a year before coming third last time out when held up well back, pulled wide, and finishing fast but too late.
He should beat those he was against last time, whilst Breakheart has a jockey having only his second ride, Broughton’s Fancy has beaten just one of 19 opponents when racing over this distance, and A Boy Named Sue, the main opponent, has to translate Newcastle form to Kempton.
Bouclier was an eye-catcher last time at Newcastle over 7f, when running free but looking in rude health on the way to third place. Back at Kempton (1945 GMT) where he is a course and distance winner, the step back to 6f can see him to best effect. His run here in January was a case of everything going wrong, and he probably still needed it coming back from a break.
He can deliver on the promise of that Newcastle run.
Recommendations: Gavarnie Encore (1745, Kempton), 7/2 in places & Bouclier (1945, Kempton) 3/1 widely available.
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