We have picked out the 3/1 about Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scoring first in tonight’s Champions League fixture between Borussia Dortmund and Monaco as a value selection. (Champions League: Aubameyang to Get Goals Flowing)
Our occasional Analytics series gets dirty with the maths to explore why this is the value pick. If you don’t particularly like maths, look away now.
The first goalscorer is a function of two probabilities – that the player’s team will score first and that the player will score first for his team. Handily, both of those markets are quoted.
Bet365 offer 11/10 he scores the first Dortmund goal, with Skybet, the other to offer that market, offering a significantly larger 6/4. We have assessed that he has scored 26 of 55 goals when playing in the league for Dortmund – which ties in with the Bet365 offer of 11/10. We therefore see the 6/4 from Skybet as very good value.
But should we back him in that market or in the general first goalscorer market?
Dortmund are 4/9 with most to score the first goal (in a market which includes no goal as an option), they are a punchier 4/11 with Bet365. We can convert 4/9 into a probability, correcting for the bookies over-round (about 12% – i.e. the three options here price to a 112% outcome when converted to percentages, so the true probability is the odds-derived percentage scaled down by 1.12). The outcome is 0.62, or 62%.
Given the 3/1 (25%) on offer for Aubameyang scoring first in the match, we can derive the odds of him scoring Dortmund’s opener as 0.25/0.62 = 0.4, implying odds of 6/4. This is exactly the Skybet price we identified as value.
Therefore, if we share the 4/9 view of Dortmund scoring first then we should be indifferent to backing the 6/4 Aubameyang scores first for Dortmund with Skybet, or the 3/1 he scores first in the match with Betfred, as they are mathematically the same.
We are, however, more bullish for Dortmund, and share the Bet365 view of 4/11 Dortmund scoring first. If we back-solve from 3/1 using the 4/11 probability instead of 4/9, we derive a price for Aubameyang scoring the first Dortmund goal of 7/4 – hence we prefer to back him at 3/1 first goalscorer (with an implied 7/4 first Dortmund scorer) than accept 6/4 that he scores Dortmund’s first, even though both are value on the stats.
In summary our bet is primarily driven by the season long stats and the game outcome agreeing with the Bet365 view, and hence we broadly agree with the 9/4 that they offer on Aubameyang as the game’s first goalscorer, making the 3/1 a stand-out bet.
Nerd calculator-drop….(not quite as dramatic as a mic-drop).