We start a busy Friday north of the border at Ayr’s Scottish National meeting, where a quirk of handicapping and race planning provides an interesting opportunity to double a similar risk.
Last time out at Kempton, Timeforwest (1650 BST) trotted up in a staying mare’s hurdle, completing a quick-fire hat-trick for trainer Jonjo O’Neill. Now this horse won with consummate ease, and it’s anyone’s guess as to how much she has had in hand.
Well the handicapper has guessed a hefty 20lbs. That, plus a stronger race, sees her appear here at a backable 7/2. That really isn’t bad, for all that 20lbs is a big burden, there is no way of knowing it will be enough, and the trainer has held her back for what look like suitable conditions.
If we like her chances, then we must like the chance of Silent Steps, who whilst beaten an easy 4 1/2 lengths by Timeforwest last time, did finish 25l clear of the rest and is only 3lbs higher in the 1725 race that follows.
If we like them both, then we should back the double as both odds reflect the risk of that Kempton form working out, and we can essentially multiply those returns together for one common underlying risk – a rare opportunity.
We will also pay a quick trip to Bath for their opening 2yo maiden (1655). You cannot emphasise too much the importance of a run in these races – it is worth several lengths.
The shape of this race has 2 big hitter newcomers from the Hannon and Dascombe yards heading the market, and that allows the once-raced Uther Pendragon to go off at a huge price. He can put his Bath experience to use to make the frame, and shopping around may find 3 places on special offer.
Timeforwest (1650 Ayr), 7/2 generally available
Silent Steps (1725 Ayr) 6/1 generally available
Timeforwest & Silent Steps, win double. (effective odds 30/1)
Uther Pendragon (1655 Bath) 16/1, each way,
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