It is a Monday evening in the flat season – it must be Windsor. The picturesque Thames-side course is not to everyone’s taste, not least the flip-flopping draw bias on the sprint course.
If there’s rain then the far rail (low numbers) tend to go well. On decent ground it is the near rail (high numbers) who are usually favoured.
The second race of the evening (1820 BST) is just such a sprint handicap. As a 3yo race it is also filled with potential improvers. This would normally scream caution, but we think there is one lurking here who could just have things pan out perfectly,
Trainer Hughie Morrison is always good value for money, and places his horses very well. His 3yo filly Bahamian Paradise comes here after being a well held 2nd in a Bath maiden.
That may not have been the best looking form at the time, but the winner has won again since, and that suggest a mark of 64 is very workable for this filly’s handicap debut.
Jockey Oisin Murphy is a top-tier pilot, and he has the benefit of steering Bahamian Paradise out of a favoured stall 15. Hopefully she will have enough early speed to hold a good position and can strike on for home from there.
Recommendation: Bahamian Paradise, (1820 Windsor), 11/1 Paddy Power
Please subscribe for notification of up-to-date tips and news, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook.