ODI Cricket: Root for Value

The build up to the ICC Champions Trophy continues in Southampton today where hosts England face South Africa in the second of a three match warm-up.

The first game was a comfortable win for the hosts, and whilst South Africa can be expected to improve as they continue to acclimatise, it is debatable if they are a match for this English team even at full throttle, and certainly not whilst still honing their game.

We expect another home win (4/5).  Southampton is usually a venue rich with runs, and with the weather set fair we expect a batsman’s paradise.

If the cream rises to the top, then expect that to be England’s finest, Joe Root.  He again showed in match 1 the frustrating habit of looking infallible until the shock moment in which he gets dismissed.

He can be backed at around 3/1 to be England’s top batsman.  Interestingly, he can be backed with Skybet at 15/2 to be the top batsman in the match.  Given England are 4/5 to win, a simplistic assumption that the top bat will be in the winning side, suggests Root’s odds for top match bat should be (4/5 * 3/1), being 6.2/1.

It could be that Skybet are factoring in the risk that England win but the top bat is South African, but we see no reason why that shouldn’t be offset by the chance of Root top scoring in an England defeat.

We think around 6/1 is the fair price (Betfair quote 11/2) – and we fancy him at those odds – so we have to take the 15/2.

Recommendation:  Joe Root, Top Match Batsman, 15/2 Skybet.

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