Saturday Ascot: Big Value Bet…

The final day of Ascot and a couple of huge sprint challenges.

The day opens with the longest 2yo race of the week, the 7f Chesham Stakes (1430 BST).  September is a short priced favourite but by no means guaranteed to get the better of Masar.  There may be room for an upset here, Westerland could go well, but he had the benefit of experience when beating Hey Gaman and Match Maker at Leicester.  The two beaten horses could improve, and it could be worth chancing the long odds for Match Maker from a yard whose runners frequently take a leap forward from debut.

The Wolferton handicap and the Hardwicke stakes follow.  Both look very tricky, we favour Kidmenever and Wings Of Desire respectively, but not enough for a bet.

The Diamond Jubilee Stakes looks a great betting heat.  Limato is justifiably favourite as a horse who loves this quick ground – he probably represents the most likely winner from the home team.  We won well on French raider The Right Man in Dubai, he’s decent but would probably prefer some cut. His win in Dubai was by a whisker from the fast-finishing US sprinter Long On Value and the American promises to be well suited by the quicker ground and the stiffer track.  He doesn’t have a huge winning record in the States, but that Dubai run suggests he might be much better in this company.  He looks hugely overpriced and is worth a cracking bet.  A key lesson in betting is never be scared of long odds – if it’s great value then jump in.  We have to follow that rule here and unleash a 2pt bet.

The following Wokingham stakes features a promising favourite in Projection.  He is very likely to run well, but whilst he promises to deliver in this type of test, last year’s winner, Outback Traveller has the been-there done-it badge and has only 4lbs extra to carry.  He showed some quiet promise at this track on seasonal debut and looks primed for a repeat.  Last year’s 5th Buckstay could run well, whilst a slipping rating for Danzeno marks him out as the biggest danger, but we strongly fancy Outback to deliver.

After the sprints comes the slog, with the Queen Alexandria stakes, the longest race in the flat calendar.  It is an unusually long race and can produce an unusual result. October Storm could outrun 100/1 odds and might be worth a look.  That said, Thomas Hobson hardly broke sweat winning here on Tuesday, and looks well placed to double up.

Recommendations:

Match Maker (1430 Ascot), 0.5pts each way, 25/1 generally available 

Long On Value (1620 Ascot), 2pts win, 20/1 generally available

Outback Traveller (1700 Ascot), 1pt win, 8/1 generally available 

Thomas Hobson (1735 Ascot), 1pt win, 11/4 generally available 

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