Thursday Races: Red Hot Archie

Another frustrating one-leg-of-a double at Carlisle yesterday, although at least Carnageo’s 13/2 win helped defray some recent losses.

We are doubling up again today, albeit across the card.

It is a good time of year to catch a horse on a roll, and the 1505 BST race at Newcastle gives us just such a chance.  This is the start of the Northumberland Plate meeting, now on the all-weather after the conversion of surface at Gosforth Park.  That should be no issue to Archipeligo as his recent blossoming of form was crowned by a consummately easy course and distance win when hardly coming off the bridle.

The handicapper has guessed he had 11lbs in hand that day, the truth is it could easily have been more, and the horse may still be on the improve.  Trainer Ian Williams has booked the promising Jamie Gormley to take 7 of those pounds back off straight away.  There are enough rivals with decent form to stop the price from being ridiculously short, and we think he will follow up

We are sorely tempted by old favourite Shady McCoy at Newmarket (1625), but prefer the chance of a horse who did us a favour last month, Socialites Red (1635) over at Nottingham.

Her win over course and distance last month was her second in two runs at the track.  She has performed solidly elsewhere but seems to retain her best for this course, and suffered a first course defeat last time when narrowly beaten into a fast-finishing second over the shorter 5f trip.

Everything looks back in her favour here, it is a step up in class, but that means that her regular jockey’s 7lb claim results in her running off an absolute featherweight.  Some fancied rivals with good recent form enhance the challenge, but also enhance the odds.

Recommendations:

Archipeligo (1505 Newcastle), 1pt win, 5/2 generally available

Socialites Red (1635 Nottingham), 1pt win, 7/1 generally available

Archipeligo & Socialites Red, 1pt win double, approx. 27/1.

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