The brutal 20% incline up to Peyragude put paid to Chris Froome’s reign in yellow. Our stage pick was in perfect position, however he was conservative on the lower slopes and left vulnerable on the really steep finish. He still rates favourite for yellow, but that has passed for now to Fabio Aru.
The passing of the yellow jersey could be significant. Stage 13 is very short, but features 3 huge climbs. There are 27kms of descent from the last of those climbs to the finish. Normally there would be a good chance of a break getting away – if anything those chances we think increase now that Aru has yellow.
Froome’s Sky team could certainly do with a rest, and Aru’s Astana team has been denuded of some top talent and may not be as effective at controlling the peleton. Provided no-one of high overall ranking makes the break, then those from lower down the order should finally be allowed to break free.
With it being Bastille Day, expect a significant French interest, and King of the Mountains jersey holder Warren Barguil, and stage 8 winner (and Lap of the Odds darling) Lilian Calmejane look highly likely to feature along with usual suspects, Pierre Rolland and Thibault Pinot.
Habitual mountain breakaway tip, Jarlinson Pantano, may well get into a move having ridden quietly but effectively to date. Whilst Team Dimension Data’s Serge Pauwels looked ready to make his move when interviewed after yesterday’s stage. He is frequently aggressive in making breaks, climbs exceptionally well, and looks tailor-made for a stage like this.
With Barguil’s priority on the polka dots, this could lie between Calmejane, Pantano and Pauwels.
Recommendations, To win Stage 13:
Serge Pauwels, 1pt win, 33/1 Skybet
Jarlinson Pantano, 0.5pts each way, 28/1 Bet3
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