A sneaky little Monday card up at Ayr offers some unusual Monday value, with competitive little handicaps throughout the card.
Carnageo did us a favour a few weeks ago and goes again here (1630 BST), but this looks like a really strong race and the first-time-headgear that sprung a victory last time is now second-time-headgear. We were very tempted by Graham Lee’s mount Century Dream – he has an awful lot in his favour, but the wide draw on a course with an early and significant turn is enough of a tactical hazard in such a tough race to be taking a watching brief only.
That said, Lee may well have got his name on the scoreboard courtesy of the improving Metisian (1500). This sprinter looked very impressive on handicap debut when winning a big field handicap at Doncaster in taking fashion. The ground was soft that day – which would suit a son of Sleeping Indian – and there is a risk that a sunny day could dry out the ground on this speedy 6f. Such was the quality of that win last time that it is worth taking a risk with the ground until actually proven otherwise.
Duncan Of Scotland, running at Ayr but ironically trained in Ireland, won well by making all here early in May, but was a disappointing favourite returning here later that month – he will be dangerous left in the lead, but probably doesn’t deserve favouritism.
Specialtv was a good 3rd here last time and may be more of a danger than Duncan, whilst we suffered backing Dandyleekie earlier in the season, and even though there has been plenty of money for him here, it won’t be ours as we are not yet in forgiving mood.
Metisian might just be a soft ground specialist, or he might be thrown in at the weights and with just 4 lifetime runs it is hard to be dogmatic either way – but the odds are rewarding enough to take a chance on the upside.
Recommendation: Metisian (1500 Ayr), 1pt win, 9/2 BetVictor, William Hill
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