Tuesday Races: Conviction in Old Bailey..

It’s Bath time today.  The hilltop racecourse is the highest (except for Limerick on Student’s night) and does not have irrigation to allow watering – hence pretty much the only “Firm” ground in the racing calendar, small fields and tight betting.  We will head north for more competitive fare at beautiful Beverley.

The sprint course at Beverley has a well-established draw bias for the inside rail (low numbers), which undermines the chances of form horse Mr Shutter (1515 BST) from the wide 15 stall.

Favourites Sarabi and Roaring Rory have much more favourable draws and deserve market leadership.  Sarabi was second here last time and must have a strong chance, she hadn’t shown much form prior to that though, and backing these low graders to repeat their efforts can be dodgy.  Sarabi for example has placed top 3 on 7 previous occasions, on the subsequent run she has finished 6/7/4/9/11/6/9 – hardly an advert for following up.

Roaring Rory is a more consistent type, finishing 3rd on both his previous runs here this season.  He didn’t get a clear run on either occasion and looks likely to run well here. His 7lb claiming jockey is faced with a tricky course to ride however.

We’ll take all of the above on with race specialist George Bailey.  He won this event two years ago, and was 4th in last year’s race.  He hasn’t shown much since and sneaks back in here off a 5lb lower mark.  There were though distinct signs of life when staying on into 5th back here last time.  This is likely to have been the target, stall 5 is ideal and experienced jockey Tom Eaves knows the horse and the track well.

Recommendation: George Bailey, (1515 Beverley), 1pt win, 12/1 Bet365, Skybet

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