US PGA: Driving Mr Koepka

Thursday sees the start of the final major of the golfing season, the US PGA, held this year at Quail Hollow club in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Mention Quail Hollow and most golfing fans think Rory McIlroy, as he practically owns the course. This is where he won his first PGA title, shooting a closing 62. In fact Rory has six top ten finishes in seven starts here, including two wins. We at Lap of the Odds HQ can’t put anyone off betting on the Northern Irish star, he could lap the field, but we think 7/1 is too tight given his inconsistency this season.

Rickie Fowler also likes the course, having won here in 2012 (beating McIlroy into second). But again we think his odds are too low given he had yet to come out on top in a major despite a number of chances.

Hideki Matsuyama must also have a chance based on his superb play in winning the WGC-Bridgestone over the weekend, but for our main bet we’re going to side with a young talented American.

Brooks Koepka won the US Open in style earlier this year, basing his game on long and accurate driving. With the course said to be very wet, this attribute is likely to give him an advantage over most. These conditions now make Koepka a two point bet.

Another young American likely to go well is Justin Thomas. A good friend of Open champion Jordan Speith, JT (that’s Justin Thomas not John Terry, although Terry is also meant to be very good with the birdies) is sure to be keen to follow his buddy into the major’s winning enclosure.

Our final two selections are familiar to followers of the blog. We think Kevin Chappell and Brian Harman are better players than their odds suggest and thus offer value.

Recommendations:

Koepka to win at 25/1, 2 pts, widely available 

Thomas 1 pt each way at 40/1, 1/5 the odds top 8 at bet365 and SkyBet 

Chappell 0.5 pts each way at 70/1, 1/5 the odds top 8 at Paddy Power 

Harman 0.5 pts each way at 150/1, 1/5 the odds top 8, widely available 

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One thought on “US PGA: Driving Mr Koepka

  1. Pingback: Kerching: 40/1 tip wins US PGA | Lap of The Odds

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