Tuesday Races: Twist of fate…

It’s off to the Cumbrian tundra today and a competitive early evening card (albeit about midday if measured by actual Carlisle daylight).

The stiff turning track is a proper test of stamina, and helps breed a horses-for-courses form-book, albeit form on similar track like Beverley in particular and Pontefract usually read across well.

We will focus on the 7f handicap (1915 BST), where there could be a chance to take on the two at the head of the market.  Penny Pot Lane has never raced this far in 21 previous efforts, and this is a stiff track to be trying the longer trip for the first time.

Fellow joint favourite, Lady in Question, is a 3yo filly with a much more obvious chance.  That said she has now lost 13 straight since a winning racecourse debut, and although a good second the last twice, she must be vulnerable given that win record.

Mr Cool Cash and Major Crispies beg to be backed on name alone, and both have interesting claims, and the Major would have been close to the vote but for a 1 from 30 turf record that again speaks to being hard to win with.

Instead, we think this could go to the attractively priced Let’s Twist.  This horse has dropped to a mark of 70 after two quiet turf runs this season, but that last effort at Doncaster wasn’t too bad coming off a 3 month layoff and winning form at Beverley and over longer trips indicate a horse likely to be finishing well when others may have had enough.

A lifetime strike rate of 3 from 16 is pretty good in the context of this race, and jockey Shane Gray knows the horse well.

Recommendation:  Let’s Twist, 1pt win, 12/1 generally available

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