With many big Saturday cards to come, it is a low-key start to September, with Sandown the highlight of a threadbare afternoon.
Nonetheless we have two strong bets for the day.
First up is the experienced sprinter Shamshon (1350 BST). Stuart Williams’ 6yo makes his 4th appearance at Sandown’s 5f chute having previously finished 1st, 4th and 3rd at the track.
This horse needs well-defined conditions. As a hold up sprinter, he needs a strong pace and a stiff track to allow his fast finish to be effective. He also has been highly effective when the handicapper has shown enough mercy to rate him around a mark of 90 (he has won off 90, 92 and 87).
He has a highly suitable course here, a mark of 89, and a top jockey in Jim Crowley. The horse is in great form having won at Newmarket, been unlucky at Ascot, and held last time at wholly unsuitable York. Today should be the day.
We would have had a super August had Masham Star held on to win at Chelmsford. That was over a mile, and he was desperately unlucky to get overhauled late on by the flying Mustashry, who has subsequently won in Group company at York.
This evening, Masham Star returns to Chelmsford (1950) over the shorter 7f trip, and looks to have an outstanding chance. He has been very busy this year, and was arguably a little below par in his two runs since that defeat, but we think this return to the turning 7f should see him spark back to his best.
Stablemate Sutter County is drawn on the inside and can cut out the running, giving the prominent racing Masham Star a lead to the final furlong where he can strike for home and hold on this time. Whilst there are plenty of dangers, none of them look like another Mustashry, and if Masham Star can simply repeat his run of a few weeks ago, he can finally collect the prize he has threatened all season long. A huge chance and a rare 3 point bet.
Naturally if long-time blog favourite and regular losing tip Baraweez beats Masham, then we will be taking a long walk off a short pier….
Shamshon (1350 Sandown), 1pt win, 9/2 Bet365, SkyBet
Masham Star (1950 Chelmsford), 3pts win, 11/1 Bet365
Shamshon & Masham Star, 0.5pts each way double, approx. 65/1
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