Well, Tuesday’s card may have had little to offer, but Wednesday’s child is full of woe (or whoa), with the lowest grade turf racing imaginable at Chepstow and Southwell. augmented by a couple of all weather meets. Gowran, in Ireland, probably offers up the best quality, but we will be exercising our patience by waiting for the closing event on Kempton’s evening card (2055 BST).
A low grade 2 mile handicap at this track is often fertile ground for betting coups. The early exchanges have already sounded the advance for Black Prince (12/1 into 9/2) and Alternate Route (12/1 into 8/1).
It is easy to make a case for either, with both the Honeyball and Prescott yards often pretty shrewd with the gambles. But these horses didn’t get into this low grade by having compelling form or consistency, and whilst the smart money may have been down at 12/1, we aren’t compelled to be the stupid money that follows in at a fraction of those odds.
Percy Thrower is the form book favourite from the useful Charlie Hills yard and comes here off the back of a couple of good placed efforts. His second at Bath has worked out particularly well with several beaten horses winning since, and it easy to see why this likeable type should be well fancied.
That Bath form however leads us to Franny Nisbet. She was having her 4th lifetime run and handicap debut when getting going all too late and finishing 3rd, a length behind Percy in that Bath race. There is good reason to expect Franny will improve, and a small turn in the weights also helps. It seems odd that she should be more than twice the odds of Percy here.
Since that Bath run she was 5th of 6 at Goodwood, that track doesn’t suit every horse, even so it was a very hot race and certainly much better than this event. With the experienced Martin Dwyer in the saddle, any amount of improvement should be enough to see her go very close at a big price.
Recommendation: Franny Nisbet (2055 Kempton), 1pt win, 14/1 generally available
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