Well we earlier asked the question “Will Scooby do?” when tipping Captain Scooby to spring a surprise in Carlisle’s opener. Will Scooby most certainly doesn’t, as he has been withdrawn following his exertions at Bath yesterday.
That gives us a chance to reload, and we keep our focus on Carlisle, where similar withdrawals have opened up two of the later races.
The 7f handicap (1625 BST) has lost Saturday’s runner-up Rock N Rolla, and this leaves what could be a straight fight between Flyboy and Redarna. We expect Tadaawol to set a strong gallop and that should suit these two hold up horses.
Flyboy was unlucky last time and likes conditions, but as a 19 times raced 4yo, with 16 handicap runs all in the range of 75-82, it doesn’t suggest much room for progression from today’s 78.
Redarna however is an 8 times raced 3yo whose third off this mark on this course on this ground last time after trouble in running suggests there is plenty of room to work with off a rating of 61. Youth can triumph here.
The withdrawal of an Irish raider in the last (1725) could leave the door open to Michael Appleby, whose speciality is rejuvenating other stable’s cast offs. Here he gives a stable debut run to the formerly Newmarket trained Topamichi.
This horse has good heavy ground form off higher marks than this. The leap of faith is that after a poor 2016, this first run of the year will see Appleby not only reignite the flame, but have it lit first time out.
The presence of the horse near the head of the market for a yard not averse to a gamble suggests he must have been showing something at home, and we have seen the yard pull this trick off many times before. He could have plenty in hand if back to his old form on ground he loves.
Recommendation: Redarna (1625 Carlisle) & Topamichi (1725 Carlisle), 1pt win double, approx. 13/1 generally available
Please subscribe for notification of up-to-date tips and news, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook