Some pretty uncompetitive fields at Ludlow and Musselburgh drive us back to the friendly Southwell sands.
We have commented before about the unique Marmite style fibresand surface at Southwell and the consequent emphasis on course specialism.
One way to exploit this is to look for a horse whose first effort at the track looks too good to believe – then believe it, whilst others doubt.
Too often, when a horse produces a lifetime best on course debut the markets treat the outcome as a freak, yet an alternative explanation is that the unique conditions have brought about a quantum leap in the horse’s form.
One such animal may be Princess Way (1540). She had looked consistent but unremarkable throughout a busy season until appearing here for the first time just before Christmas.
That day she made all (always a good tactic at the course) and may well get an uncontested lead here. Her win was accomplished in tidy fashion, and whilst it may not have been a great race, neither is today’s.
A wide draw may have added a point to the price, but as a front runner she shouldn’t be too inconvenienced.
Recommendation: Princess Way, (1540 Southwell), 1pt win, 6/1 generally available
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