Tonight sees the last FA Cup tie of the fifth round, with the DW Stadium hosting Manchester City‘s visit to Wigan.
We at Lap of the Odds HQ are skeptical of the value available in these early FA Cup ties given the uncertainty surrounding team selection and motivation. But we’re going to take a punt tonight, a bet which admittedly has the potential for embarrassment.
Manchester City are clearly the team of the season, and are still competing on all four fronts. However, we are now getting to the business end of the season, and City face a Cup Final against Arsenal on the weekend. Throw in some injuries and a busy schedule and there is the potential for City to put out a much weakened team.
Now it’s true City could offer up a completely changed side and still be favourites to progress, but the 22/1 that bet365 offers for a Wigan win seems large. After all the hosts have already beaten Premier League sides Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham during this run.
We’ll take half a point on the Wigan win and half a point on the draw as something of a hedge. Nothing ventured, nothing gained!
Recommendation: Wigan to beat Manchester City, 0.5 pts at 22/1, and 0.5 pts on the draw at 8/1, both bet365
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