After a sobering (purely metaphorically) Cheltenham Festival a few years ago, when the elusive search for “value” had been blown asunder by a succession of short priced Willie Mullins winners, it was interesting to read a retrospective from the excellent Tom Segal (Pricewise), possibly the most renowned value-hunter.
His lesson learnt was an old one, but one that needs relearning – that value exists at all prices, including sometimes short prices. He in particular referred to the short priced saunter of Mullins’ mare Vroom Vroom Mag.
Well we are reminded of that as we nap an unusually short priced horse by our standards, but another mare capable of a Vroom like stroll.
Oscar Rose has promised more than she has delivered for a large part this season, but her excellent 4th last time at Doncaster was a truly eye-catching effort. She travelled well and may have played an even closer hand in the finish but for a troubled run up the straight.
That form is working out very well, and the handicapper has her on a mark of 119 which we would see as very generous. This is a novice event and as such she is rated 10lbs well in with main rival Chilli Filli, who she beat off levels at Ludlow in November and from whom she now receives 6lbs. Doubtless Chilli has room to add too, but not more so that Oscar Rose, and that 10lb ratings gap is worth more than the 5/4 vs 5/2 odds gap.
Big Robin is a bit of an unknown having had a slow start to her career. She is well bred, but will need to be a lot more special than she has shown to date to win this on a first run for a year.
The rest have plenty to prove. Oscar Rose does not. She is 10lb clear on the book, and that’s a book we think underestimates her and she is a 1/2 shot masquerading at 5/4.
Recommendation: Oscar Rose, (1440 Taunton), 2pts win, 5/4 generally available
Please subscribe for notification of latest tips and news, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook.