More Beast from the East peril today and we’ll head to the relative security of Lingfield Park.
Sometimes a bet is defined by its own merits versus the odds – potential to improve, liking for conditions, etc. And then sometimes it falls out of the shortcomings of others.
The 10f handicap (1500), sees a very short priced favourite in Abe Lincoln. Ironically given he is named after a man famed for honesty, the equine Abe is not one to be trusted.
He was a massively gambled favourite for the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot despite returning from a year off. He must have shown more at home than on the track as he disappointed badly and it’s been a struggle since. There was hope after another break when a fair third at Chelmsford, but even though winning last time, that was hard work when 1/2 fav in a weak novice race.
A step up to 10f does not look too likely to suit on run style or breeding, whilst a tongue tie and cheek pieces says a lot about his attitude. Ryan Moore in the saddle helps keep the price short, but even Ryan could struggle to get the best out of Abe.
Value therefore lies elsewhere with December combatants Emenem and Kyllachy Gala likely to fight it out again.
Emenem prevailed narrowly then and can confirm the form. He looks the more reliable of the two, has lifetime course form of 131, all at this trip, and the Dow stable have landed 2 wins from just a half dozen runners in the last fortnight.
Recommendation: Emenem (1500 Lingfield), 1pt win, 5/2 generally available
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