There are two more games in the Premier League today, both involving teams near the top of the league traveling to lower ranked sides.
First up is Manchester City‘s visit to Huddersfield. This pits the league’s top scorers against the lowest, and that’s really all that needs to be said. Huddersfield have struggled in the Premier League this season, and parted company with head coach David Wagner earlier this week. City, by contrast, are flying after beating league leaders Liverpool a couple of weeks ago, racking up big wins for fun.
City put six past Huddersfield in the reverse fixture earlier this season, and the home side have lost eight of their last nine games. This will be another defeat.
The bookies are also expecting an easy City win (Huddersfield are 22/1 to win at home!) and so all the goal scorer odds are compressed. To create value we’re having to look at the more exotic markets. Paddy Power offers 11/2 that City win to nil and both Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling score. That seems fair to us.
Next up is Tottenham‘s visit to Fulham. Spurs have been hit hard by the injury to their main striker Harry Kane and the disappearance of Son Heung-min to international duty. This has to lower their expectations today.
At the same time, Fulham have recently appointed Claudio Ranieri as manager, tasked with the difficult task of trying to keep the side in the Premier League. The area he has tried to shore up is defence, with Fulham conceding far too many, and this could mean a defensive set up.
This tends to suggest that goals may be in short supply today. With this in mind we think the first goalscorer bet offers more value than an anytime goalscorer bet. The absence of Kane and Son May mean a more adventurous role for Dele Alli, and we’ll take a punt he scores first, with William Hill offering enhanced odds.
Huddersfield/Man City: City win to nil and both Sterling and Jesus score, 1 pt, at 11/2, Paddy Power
Fulham/Spurs: Alli to score first, 1 pt, at 8/1, William Hill
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