Wednesday Yankee: Fact worth checking…

A nice winning nap yesterday as Harvest Day finally rewarded support (tipped at 6/1, drifted to 8s then tightened pre race to 7/2). We’ll be keeping a close eye on Newcastle where the previously strong anti-pace bias looks to have turned a full 180.

The Daily Yankee:

NAP OF THE DAY:  Ilhabela Fact, (1915 Kempton), 1pt win, 11/4 generally available 

This is a nap that tests our belief in handicapping.  We successfully napped tonight’s favourite Unit Of Assessment when he won last week.  That was off 69 when we noted he should be running off 72.  Now he runs off 77, when he should be off 74 – yes he’s in form but he has gone from 3lbs well in to 3lbs badly in.  That vulnerability is illustrated by smooth travelling Ilhabela Fact who beat Unit Of Assessment by 6 lengths in early December and now reopposes 3lbs better off.  Ilhabela ran really well till the petrol came up empty over a longer trip last time and should win here.

Choice Encounter, (1845 Kempton), 2/1:  somehow managed to get up late on to win here last time after veering badly at the stalls and losing his race position.  Has only been raised 2lbs for the narrow win, but looked like he has enough in the locker to have been a much more impressive winner with a bit of luck.  Should certainly follow up here.

Harry Callaghan, (1945 Kempton), 11/2:  Dirty Harry had shown absolutely nothing until in a first time visor last time when left far too much to do in race that didn’t favour hold up tactics.  Still he finished like a train and should be given a chance to atone.  Do you feel lucky? well punk, do you?

Magic Mirror, (2015 Kempton), 4/1:  has won 6 of her 20 runs here and loves nothing more than to surge home off a strong pace.  Has been in great form experimenting at longer trips but reverts here to the mile at which she made her name.  The stronger the pace the better and none will be finishing faster. That’s less likely of favourite Espresso Freddo who may be worth taking on at a trip that seemed  to be deemed too far 13 runs ago but is tried again now.

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