We were right to call a lower than expected vote share for the Brexit Party at the recent Euro elections and got paid off at 11/4.
At first glance it looks as though today’s Peterborough by-election offers less value with the Brexit boys at 1/6 to win, having polled around 45% at the recent Euro vote in a 60% Leave Brexit constituency.
It looks likely it will fall that way, but this isn’t a Euro election, and there could be some voter fatigue impacting turnout, and that leaves the door fractionally ajar for an upset.
The bookies quote of 4/1 that incumbents Labour benefit from any upset looks pretty unlikely given the haemorrhage of support for the two traditional main parties.
Instead the 33/1 for the Liberal Democrats looks by far the better option. They did well nationally at the Euro vote albeit still marginally behind Labour in this constituency. But they are by-election experts, look likely to leap-frog Labour, and as the only clear Remain party can hoover up much of the 40% who voted Remain in the referendum.
It may not be enough to defeat the Brexit Party bandwagon, but they are the only plausible other result and it has to be more than a 1 in 34 chance. Worth a little flutter.
Liberal Democrats to win, 1pt win, 33/1 Ladbrokes, Betfred.
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