The first week of the Six Nations didn’t go so well for us at Lap of the Odds HQ, with only the France result agreeing with our suggestions. But once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more…
First up today is Ireland versus Wales at the Aviva Stadium. The hosts were very fortunate to get away with an ugly win over Scotland last week, and will have to up their game considerably today.
Wales, by contrast, were never in trouble against a disappointing Italian side. Now it’s true Italy didn’t offer too much of a challenge, but to nil any side these days is something to applaud.
We don’t think there’s much between these two teams, but it’s Wales that will arrive with more confidence. Giving them a three point handicap lead swings the advantage their way as we see it.
The late game is the Calcutta Cup from Murrayfield, as Scotland host England.
England were truly awful for much of last weekend’s game in Paris, with only Johnny May’s individual brilliance rescuing the scoreline. They have made changes for this week, but the lack of thinking on their feet that we worried about prior to the France march was still in evidence.
Scotland played well above where we expected last week, and probably should have won in Dublin. They will be desperate to beat the English, having come so close last year in that extraordinary game at Twickenham.
We think the seven point handicap the bookies give to England is too much, and we’re going to side with the Scots.
Recommendation: Wales to beat Ireland with a 3 point start and Scotland to beat England with a 7 point start as a double, 1 pt, at approximately 3/1, widely available
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