The Premier League returns tonight after its coronavirus-inspired lay-off, with a couple of games to whet the appetite.
The break has given us time to think about how we approach our football betting.
Previously we had been concentrating on player-based betting to generate the magnitude of odds we’re looking for. But this has proved difficult to get ahead of the bookies with their vast data banks, and so we’re going to turn more towards results based betting.
Turning to the evening game, Manchester City host Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium.
For us, the question is one of incentives. City are strong favourites to win tonight, and they can welcome back some of their injured stars. But what are they playing for? Champions League qualification is a given, while the title is probably out of the question.
They do have this year’s Champions League tournament and the FA Cup to win, but does that mean the league games will be used as tune ups?
Arsenal, on the other hand, only have potential Champions League qualification to play for. They also, in Mikel Arteta, have someone who will know the City setup like the back of his hand.
City are likely to win tonight, but the 8/1 available for the Gunners to surprise seems a large price. We’ll take a punt.
Man City/Arsenal: Arsenal to win, 1 pt, at 8/1, widely available