Premier League: The ‘Heads you win’ treble…

The Premier League continues Sunday, with the matches starting on the south coast and Brighton taking on Sheffield United.

Sheffield United are having a dreadful campaign, winning just one point from their 13 games to lie firmly anchored at the bottom of the league. They have tended to be competitive in most games, but lack the firepower to bounce back when they concede.

One of their biggest weaknesses this season has been defending set-pieces; they sit behind only Leeds and Leicester for goals conceded from those situations. This is a stat which will be used frequently in this post!

Although Brighton haven’t scored many from corners and free kicks, Lewis Dunk went very close against Fulham midweek. SkyBet offers 14/1 that he scores a header today, and we’ll be on that.

The next game sees Tottenham host Leicester, with both teams flying high and looking for the three points that will take them closer to Liverpool at the top of the table.

Spurs have been excellent at home (as much as an empty stadium can be called home!) this season, only dropping points because of dramatic stoppage-time equalisers by Newcastle and West Ham, while Leicester have won five from six on their travels.

We tend to side with Spurs for this one, as they were very good in the second half at Anfield midweek, but are wary of Leicester’s away record. However, we note Leicester’s weakness against set pieces, as mentioned above. Harry Kane has scored twice with headers already this season, and has had 10 headed shots at goal this season so far. SkyBet offers 10/1 that he will net a header, and we’ll try that.

The final game we’re going to suggest a bet on sees Manchester United take on Leeds at Old Trafford. The hosts have been relatively poor at Old Trafford all season, with only one win in six home league games, as they have struggled to break down teams that sit deep.

However, Leeds are unlikely to change their style to do this, and this could leave them open to the counter, where Manchester United can be so dangerous. That said, Leeds will also create chances against a backline that hardly oozes confidence.

We think Manchester United will win, but are unwilling to bet on it. Instead, we note that Leeds have conceded more set piece goals than any other team in the Premier League and Manchester United defender Harry Maguire has more headed shots than any other central defender this season. SkyBet offers 14/1 that Maguire scores a header, and that’s our bet.

Recommendations:

Brighton/Sheff Utd: Dunk to score a header, 1 pt, at 14/1, SkyBet

Tottenham/Leicester: Kane to score a header, 1 pt, at 10/1, SkyBet

Man Utd/Leeds: Maguire to score a header, 1 pt, at 14/1, SkyBet

A treble, 1 pt, at 2474/1

Disclaimer

Leave a Reply