Saturday Yankee: Sweet Sixteen…

The Daily Yankee

NAP OF THE DAY:  Hill Sixteen, (1440 Haydock), 1pt win, 3/1:  

We’ve been on him both times this season and he has won both times, firstly by the track in the mud over fences at Ffos Las and then by a nose on quicker ground over hurdles at Newbury.  Back over fences and back in the mud he can defy his 12lb hike for Ffos Las as he climbs the ranks for his new yard.

Roksana, (1425 Ascot), 5/1: billed as a Paisley Park v Thyme Hill match it may easily become that, but the mare Roksana would be rated the equal of Thyme Hill with her mares 7lb allowance.  That allowance is uniform for all distances, but handicappers regularly ascribe more lengths advantage per pound of weight for gruelling long distance races.  So with things likely to be very taxing here, that 7lbs could ride more like 14lbs, and, not for the first or last time this season, can heavily advantage the mare.

The Conditional, (1500 Ascot), 7/2:  old veteran Regal Encore should win the battle of course specialists with Espoir De Guye over this trip but both look up against it.  Quarenta won well here last time and has a good chance but it’s hard to get away from how well treated The Conditional remains. Connections must have friends in the handicapping committee as he ran at the Cheltenham festival in March only 2lbs higher than when runner up in the valuable Ladbroke chase.  He duly won at the festival but was still only a further 8lbs higher when 3rd in this year’s Ladbroke for which run he is now remarkably dropped a pound.  More effective on this ground, he should win this after which he will surely finally get the clobbering that’s long been coming.

Benson, (1535 Ascot), 7/1:  a valuable handicap hurdle in which favourite Buzz could be vulnerable under a big weight in a bog.  Time Flies By may have been pitched into this company soon enough, and we prefer Benson.  He has already progressed from novice company and there was lots to like about his heavy ground win at Sandown last time.  That was a decent little race and the way he drew clear late on suggested more in the tank.  

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