The European Championships comes to an exciting conclusion this evening, with England taking on Italy in the final at Wembley.
We at Lap of the Odds tipped the Italians to win the competition at the outset, and we still think this is the most likely result. However, in the spirit of “football’s coming home”, we’re going to suggest an England-based bet to act as a hedge.
We have had some success siding with Harry Maguire to get his head to crosses. But Italy have two very experienced central defenders, in Chiellini and Bonucci, and we think they will mark England’s colossus tightly.
We think England will find it very hard to penetrate the Italian penalty area, and their chances are likely to come from set pieces. England fans still remember Kieran Trippier’s free kick against Croatia in the World Cup semifinal in 2018, and we’ll take the 50/1 on offer that he does something similar tonight.
However the teams set up we think this will be a tight match. Both teams have an abundance of attacking talent but are also solid defensively. With this in mind, we think a 1-1 score looks a sound proposition after 90 minutes.
Finally, taking an overall view of the tournament, Italy have played a lot of the really good football. England striker Raheem Sterling is currently favourite to be awarded the title player of the tournament, and if England win that’s probably assured. However, if Italy were to win tonight then midfielder Jorginho would offer value at 8/1 to take the award.
Trippier (England) to score from outside the penalty area in 90 mins, 1 pt, at 50/1, SkyBet
Correct score 1-1, 1 pt, at 11/2, BetVictor
Jorginho (Italy) to win player of the tournament, 1 pt, at 8/1, William Hill