Tuesday Races: A Stern Lesson

Regular readers of the blog (yes, both of you) will know that we love a quickly reappearing winner.  You’ll also know this hasn’t worked out nearly as well as we’d have liked of late.

Well we’re faced with a stick-or-twist option in the staying handicap at Ffos Las this afternoon (1645 BST), where the god of rapidly turned out summer handicap winners, Sir Mark Prescott, runs last week’s 12 length Yarmouth winner Veiled Secret under a penalty.

All logic dictates that this short priced favourite should defy that penalty and follow up here.  For once though, we aren’t convinced.  That 12 length win was at long odds on in a 4 runner race.  Prior to that, Veiled Secret had run three times at staying trips this season without looking hugely progressive.  The horse may just be lifting off, or it may just have found a soft race last time.  He’s priced like a Prescott sure thing, but this is much stronger and opposing looks the wiser option this time.

The vehicle of our opposition is the useful hurdler Sternrubin.  He has had a fruitful flat campaign and continues in good form.  The soft ground should hold no fears, and this smooth travelling runner should benefit from the front running exploits of the favourite.

This evening Chelmsford holds a cracking mile handicap (1910). Many eyes will be on the potentially progressive Mustashry who ran an eyecatching return in the big handicap at Goodwood.

We prefer the more exposed claims of Masham Star.  He has been very busy this season, without winning, but also with his rating barely moving.  This is a sign of frustrating consistency in many top races.

His prominent running style has seen him lead in the final 2f of most of his races although overhauled each time.  This turning Polytrack course often suits prominent run styles, and may finally offer the conditions this horse needs. He could be overlooked by many and hopefully priced accordingly.

Recommendations:

Sternrubin (1645 Ffos Las), 1pt win, 5/1 William Hill

Masham Star (1910 Chelmsford) 1pt win, 8/1 Stan James

Sternrubin & Masham Star, 0.5pts each way double, approx 53/1.

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